Fitch ABB-nin reytinq proqnozunu yenə Pozitiv qiymətləndirdi

Fitch Beynəlxalq Reytinq Agentliyi ABB-nin reytinqlərinə yenidən baxaraq Bankın Uzunmüddətli emitentin defolt reytinqini BB səviyyəsində saxlayıb. ABB-nin Dayanıqlılıq reytinqi də bb səviyyəsində qiymətləndirilib. Reytinq proqnozu isə Pozitiv olaraq müəyyənləşib.  
Marja xəbər verir ki, bu, ABB-nin yaydığı məlumatda bildirilir.
VTB-də yüksək depozit faizləri daha çox qazandırır
Qeyd edilib ki, Fitch ekspertlərinin rəyinə görə Bankın kredit portfelinin genişlənməsi orta müddətdə müvafiq templə davam edəcək, aktivlərin keyfiyyəti isə davamlı şəkildə möhkəm qalacaq.
ABB-nin Uzunmüddətli emitentin defolt reytinqinin BB səviyyəsi Bankın güclü daxili bazar mövqeyini, dayanıqlı balans strukturunu, möhkəm maliyyə göstəricilərini əks etdirir.
Güclü balans strukturu Bankın aktivlərinin keyfiyyətinin davamlı şəkildə artmasına, yüksək gəlirliliyinə şərait yaradır, möhkəm kapital mövqeyini və likvidliyini təmin edir. Agentliyin proqnozlarına görə, Bankın əməliyyat gəlirliliyi ortamüddətli perspektivdə də güclü səviyyədə qalacaq.
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Fitch Affirms International Bank of Azerbaijan at BB; Outlook Positive
Fitch Ratings has affirmed OJSC International Bank of Azerbaijans (ABB) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (LT IDR) at BB. The Outlook is Positive. Fitch has also affirmed the banks Viability Rating (VR) at bb. A full list of rating actions is below.
The Positive Outlook reflects Fitchs expectations that the expansion of the banks loan portfolio will moderate over the medium term, while its asset quality should remain robust on a sustained basis.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
ABBs LT IDR of BB is driven by the banks standalone profile, as captured by its VR of bb. The VR reflects a strong domestic franchise, solid balance-sheet structure and robust financial metrics. These are counterbalanced by the banks exposure to the emerging and oil-dependent Azerbaijani economy.
Moderating Growth; Retail Lending Risks: Fitch projects that Azerbaijans GDP growth will decelerate to 3.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, from 4.1% in 2024, reflecting a slowdown in the oil and gas sector amid lower global prices. The banking sectors average metrics have improved since 2017, with reduced loan dollarisation and legacy asset-quality risks. However, the rapid expansion of retail lending since 2021 could pose overheating risks, although the central bank takes proactive measures to mitigate credit risk in this subsector.
Leading Franchise; State Ownership: ABB is the largest bank in Azerbaijan, representing 25% of sector assets and 23% of sector loans at end-1H25. This results in the banks strong domestic franchise and considerable pricing power. ABB is 92% state-owned.
Robust Asset Structure: ABBs loan book accounted for a moderate 43% of assets at end-1H25, with equal contributions from retail and corporate lending. The bank focuses on mortgages and unsecured cash loans for its retail lending, while the corporate portfolio comprises mostly exposures to the largest local enterprises. Non-loan assets (40%) were mostly liquid and of at least BBB- credit quality. ABBs balance-sheet structure is a major rating strength, as it translates into resilient asset quality and profitability, plus solid capital and liquidity buffers.
Sound Loan Quality: ABBs impaired loans (Stage 3 loans under IFRS 9) rose mildly to 4.6% of gross loans at end-1H25 (end-2024: 3.5%), but these were almost fully covered by loan loss allowances. Stage 2 loans were limited (end-1H25: 1.3% of gross loans). Fitch believes the largest corporate exposures are adequately classified and provisioned for. We expect the impaired loans ratio to remain below 5% in 2H25-2026, supported by loan growth and write-offs.
Superior Profitability: The banks annualised net interest income was stable at 6.1% of average earning assets (including cash and cash equivalents) in 1H25 (2024: 6%). This, coupled with good operating efficiency, led to a strong pre-impairment profit equal to 9.4% of average gross loans, while credit losses were limited. As a result, ABBs annualised operating profit/risk weighted assets (RWAs) ratio was a high 5.9% in 1H25 (2024: 6.1%). We expect the banks operating profitability to moderate in 2H25-2026, but to remain strong.
Solid Capital Buffer: ABBs Fitch Core Capital (FCC) ratio decreased to 26% at end-1H25 (end-2024: 29%), owing to 18% RWA growth and dividend payments (56% of 2024 net income). We expect the FCC ratio to stay above 22% over the medium term, after large dividend payouts and on projected slower loan expansion to 15%-20% in 2025-2026 (2024: 26%).
Concentrated Funding, Ample Liquidity: The bank is mostly deposit-funded (end-1H25: 88% of liabilities). Single-name deposit concentration is high, with a large contribution from state-owned corporates (end-1H25: 50% of deposits), but we view these depositors as stable and core to the bank. ABBs liquidity buffer is substantial in both local and foreign currencies, as reflected by a gross loans/customer deposits ratio of 61% at end-1H25.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
The Outlook on ABBs LT IDR could be changed to Stable, due to an erosion of capital and liquidity buffers, following rapid asset growth and large dividend payouts. The Outlook may also be revised to Stable on material loan-quality deterioration, stemming from aggressive loan growth, and a notable moderation in the banks profitability, resulting from substantial loan impairment charges.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
An upgrade of ABBs VR and LT IDR would require sustained reasonable loan quality amid moderate loan growth and a stable domestic economic environment.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
ABBs Government Support Rating (GSR) of no support reflects that the support from the government of Azerbaijan cannot be relied on. This reflects the mixed and patchy record of state support provided to ABB.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
An upgrade of the banks GSR would be contingent on a positive change in Azerbaijans propensity to support domestic systemically important banks, as manifested in a consistent record of state support.
VR ADJUSTMENTS
The earnings and profitability score of bb+ is below the bbb category implied score because of the following adjustment reason: revenue diversification (negative).
The capitalisation and leverage score of bb+ is below the bbb category implied score because of the following adjustment reason: risk profile and business model (negative).
The funding and liquidity score of bb+ is below the bbb category implied score because of the following adjustment reason: historical and future metrics (negative). 
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. / marja.az